Preview

Bulletin of the State University of Education. Series: Economics

Advanced search

The study of economic cycles and the analysis of cyclical fluctuations since the middle of the XX century before the beginning of the XXI century (USSR and Russian Federation)

https://doi.org/10.18384/2949-5024-2024-3-14-22

Abstract

Aim. To present an analysis of cyclical fluctuations from the middle of the XX century to the beginning of the XXI century in the USSR and the Russian Federation. To identify the causes of the deep crisis of the Russian medium-term cycle in the 1990s.

Methodology. Research of economic trends in Russia, determination of the characteristics of the cycle and its phases through analysis, synthesis, generalization, comparison, identification of trends and description of trends.

Results. Twelve-year phases in thirty-six-year cycles have been determined. The crisis of the 1990s is a long-lasting single long-term economic cycle in Russia, including medium-term cycles and cycles of transition processes that form a new model of the country’s economic growth. The disinvestment and reconstructive medium-term cycles are identified and characterized.

Research implicationsEconomic cycles from the middle of the XX century to the beginning of the XXI century are characterized and evaluated. The asynchrony of the cyclicity of Russia with similar cycles of other countries is highlighted. The characteristics and features of the phases of the cycles of Russia are presented.

About the Author

V. V. Tolstukhin
Federal State University of Education
Russian Federation

Vladimir V. Tolstukhin – Postgraduate Student, Financial, Economic and Business Education Department 

ul. Radio 10a, Moscow, 105005



References

1. Belyanova E. V. [The Economic Cycle in Russia in 1998–2008: The Emergence of Internal Mechanisms of Cyclical Development or The Importation of Global Shocks?]. In: Ekonomicheskii zhurnal Vysshei shkoly ekonomiki [Economic Journal of Higher School of Economic], 2012, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 31–57.

2. Giovanni A. The Long Twentieth Century: Money, Power and The Origins of Our Time (Russ. ed.: Smirnov A., Edelman N. transls. Dolgii dvadtsatyi vek: Dengi, vlast i istoki nashego vremeni. Moscow, Territoriia budushchego Publ., 2006. 472 p.).

3. Zoidov K. H., Yankauskas K. S. [Problems, Risks, Trends in The Development of The World Economy at The Beginning of 2022 and Mechanisms for Relaying the Negative Effects of The World Economic System into The Russian Economy]. In: Problemy rynochnoi ekonomiki [Problems of the Market Economy], 2022, no. 2, pp. 97–113.

4. Zychenko I. A. [Classification of Theories of Economic Cycles]. In: Vestnik Moskovskogo gosudarstvennogo oblastnogo universiteta. Seriia: Ekonomika [Bulletin of the Moscow Regional State University. Series: Economics], 2013, no. 1, pp. 12–17.

5. Kondratiev N. D. Bolhie tsikly koniunktury i teoriia predvideniia. Izbrannye trudy [Large Cycles of Conjuncture and The Theory of Foresight. Selected Works]. Moscow, Ekonomika Publ., 2002. 550 p.

6. Pantin V. I. Tsikly i ritmy istorii [Cycles and Rhythms of History]. Ryazan, Riazanskoe armeiskoe kulturnoe obshchestvo “Araks” Publ., 1996. 156 p.

7. Tolstukhin V. V. [The Essence and Nature of Economic Cycles: The Basis for Influencing Crises]. In: Vestnik Evraziiskoi nauki (elektronnyi nauchnyi zhurnal) [Bulletin of Eurasian Science (electronic scientific journal)], 2023, vol. 15, no. 1. URL: https://esj.today/PDF/07ECVN123.pdf (accessed: 25.12.2023).

8. Tolstukhin V. V. [Structuring the Features of The Financial and Economic Crisis of 2008–2010]. In: XXXVI Mezhdunarodnye Plekhanovskie chteniia konferentsii: sbornik statei aspirantov i molodykh uchenykh [XXXVI International Plekhanov Readings of The Conference: A Collection of Articles by Graduate Students and Young Scientists]. Moscow, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Publ., 2023, pp. 407–413.

9. Shlychkov V. V., Nestulaeva D. R., Zareznov D. A. [Russian Economy 2023: Inevitable Paradigm Shifts and Development Forecasts]. In: Vestnik Sibirskogo instituta biznesa i informatsionnykh tekhnologii [Bulletin of the Siberian Institute of Business and Information Technology], 2023, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 144–151.


Review

Views: 82


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.


ISSN 2949-5040 (Print)
ISSN 2949-5024 (Online)