Inflationary effects of commodity markets
https://doi.org/10.18384/2949-5024-2025-1-19-31
Abstract
Aim. Quantitative assessment of inflationary effects arising due to volatility of commodity markets.
Methodology. The key research methods were statistical and comparative types of analysis. Metals commodity market was analyzed in order to evaluate its impact on the final products of the subsequent process stages of the value chain on the US and Russia markets.
Results. Quantitative estimations of the reaction time lags of the next processing stages to the volatility of the metals market have been obtained. Size of the effect of the raw material costs on the inflation of final products of the next processing stages was estimated on the basis of metals commodity market.
Research implications lies in the quantitative understanding of the mechanisms of external commodity shocks price transferring to final products in the economy, which allows enterprises and other economic agents to better take them into account during forecasting their activities and, as a consequence, to reduce the reaction time to the external shock and the inevitable growth of costs during this period.
About the Authors
L. F. Malinovskiy
Federal State University of Education
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Leonid F. Malinovsky – Cand. Sci. (Economics), Assoc. Prof., Assoc. Prof., Financial, Economic and Business Education Department
ul. Radio 10a, str. 2, Moscow 105005
N. A. Degterev
Federal State University of Education
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nikita A. Degterev – Postgraduate Student, Financial, Economic and Business Education Department
ul. Radio 10a, str. 2, Moscow 105005
References
1. Kuvalin D. B., Moiseev A. K., Shirov A. A. [Price Dynamics in Russia and Its Impact on Monetary Policy and Economic Development]. In: Problemy prognozirovaniia [Problems of Forecasting], 2020, no. 5, pp. 97–107.
2. Karlova N. A., Puzanova E. V., Bogacheva I. V., Morozov A. G. [How Inflation Expectations of Enterprises Are Formed: Survey Results]. In: Problemy prognozirovaniia [Problems of Forecasting], 2020, no. 5, pp. 83–96.
3. Brachinger H. A New Index of Perceived Inflation: Assumptions, Method, and Application to Germany. In: Journal of Economic Psychology, 2008, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 433–457.
4. Bruine В. de, Wändi, Klaauw W. van, Topa G. Expectations of Inflation: The Biasing Effect of Thoughts about Specific Prices. In: Journal of Economic Psychology, 2011, vol. 32, no. 5, pp. 834–845.
5. Cavallo M. Oil Prices and Inflation. In: FRBSF Economic Letter, 2008, no. 31. Available at: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2008-31.pdf (accessed: 23.01.2025).
6. Yotzov I., Bloom N., Bunn P., Mizen P., Thwaites G. The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation. In: Bank of England, 2018, Staff working paper no. 1085, pp. 1–64. Available at: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2024/the-speed-of-firm-response-to-inflation (accessed: 23.01.2025).
7. Baba C., Duval R., Lan T., Topalova P. The 2020–2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection. In: IMF Working Papers, 2023, WP/23/30, pp. 1–22. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/02/10/The-2020-2022-Inflation-Surge-Across-Europe-A-Phillips-Curve-Based-Dissection-529693 (accessed: 23.01.2025).
8. Mankiw N. G., Reis R., Wolfers J. Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 2003, vol. 18, pp. 209–270.
9. Mork K. A.; Hall R. E. Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974–1975. In: Energy Journal, 1980, vol. 1, pp. 31–63.
10. Dao M., Gourinchas P., Leigh D., Mishra P. Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020. In: NBER Working Paper. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2024, pp. 1–41. Available at: https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/inflation-covid-era-and-beyond/understanding-international-rise-and-fall-inflation-2020 (accessed: 23.01.2025).
Review
Views:
112
Email this article 