A HARMONIC ANALYSIS-BASED TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING PERIODIC ECONOMIC PROCESSES IN MS EXCEL

Abstract

The article considers a technique for constructing the point forecast of periodic economic processes by means of harmonic analysis and Excel tools. The technique is based on the construction and use of a time series model for forecasting, including trend, seasonal and cyclic components. Special attention is paid to the choice of the number of levels of the series used to build the model; identifying and assessing the significance of its parameters; study of the quality of the constructed predictive model and the adequacy of its source data with wide use of Excel tools. The process of forecasting is considered by the example of a series of quarterly data on the company’s sales for eight years. The high predictive power of the constructed model for point forecasting is shown both for the considered indicator as a whole, and for seasonal and cyclic fluctuations.